VI
VIASAT INC (VSAT)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY25 revenue was $1.15B, up ~0% YoY, beating consensus by ~1.4%; non-GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.02, missing consensus, and Adjusted EBITDA was $374.8M, below EBITDA consensus; results were impacted by a $169M impairment tied to the ViaSat-3 EMEA ground network write-down .
- Guidance pivoted: FY26 revenue growth guided to low single digits, but Adjusted EBITDA is now “flattish” (+/-1%), versus prior expectations for YoY growth; capex remains ~$1.3B, and the company continues to target positive free cash flow in H2 FY26 .
- Strategic execution highlights: multi-orbit progress (Telesat LEO integration), aviation backlog strength, and NexusWave maritime traction; management emphasized derisking capital intensity and debt paydown, including early redemption of 2025 notes and planned repayment of remaining Inmarsat Term Loan B (~$300M) .
- Stock reaction catalysts: lowered EBITDA trajectory for FY26, near-term aviation headwinds (OEM delays, traffic flow pressures, tariff exposure), and potential upside from Ligado claims (> $500M publicly referenced) if realized and applied to deleveraging .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Defense & Advanced Technologies (DAT) revenue rose 11% YoY to $322.1M in Q4; Adjusted EBITDA grew 19% YoY to $68.6M, driven by tactical networking and InfoSec products .
- Aviation services continued to grow: commercial aircraft in service reached ~4,030 and business aviation ~2,000, with backlog strength underpinning future growth; service revenue up 5% YoY .
- Multi-orbit strategy and third-party capacity integration advanced (e.g., Telesat LEO), improving user experience and capital efficiency; NexusWave demonstrated 340 Mbps bonded download speeds and secured major fleet wins (e.g., Maersk) .
What Went Wrong
- Communication Services revenue fell 4% YoY to $825.0M; declines in fixed services & other (-19% YoY) and maritime (-8% YoY) offset government satcom and aviation service gains .
- GAAP net loss widened to -$246.1M from -$100.3M YoY, driven by a $169M impairment related to ViaSat-3 EMEA ground network and recognition of contract liabilities .
- FY26 Adjusted EBITDA outlook was reduced to flattish (+/-1%) due to ~$60M higher third-party bandwidth and ~$30M added operating costs to ready ViaSat-3 ground network, combined with softer aviation macros and normalizing royalties at TrellisWare .
Financial Results
Consolidated performance vs prior quarters and year
Note: CFO disclosed Q4 Adjusted EBITDA margin ~32.7% .
Segment revenues and EBITDA trends
Communication Services sub-segment revenue mix
KPIs
Actuals vs Wall Street consensus (S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Highlights: Revenue beat (+$16M); EPS miss (-$0.0625); EBITDA below consensus.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our fiscal 2025 was a pivotal year… We met or beat our guidance metrics; achieved record new contract awards… integrated the first ViaSat-3 F1… and made organizational changes to further improve speed [and] agility…” .
- “We are still planning to ship the [ViaSat-3 F2] spacecraft to the launch site this summer… We felt it was prudent just to update investors… there is some probability that it could fall into early calendar ’26.” .
- “Adjusted EBITDA included a $6 million FX loss and $18 million of noncash write-offs… Excluding these items, margins would have been about 2 points higher.” .
- “Any potential proceeds from our strategic review or Ligado will be prioritized for debt repayment… the amount of cash that we’re owed is in excess of $500 million.” .
- “We expect modest revenue growth with flattish adjusted EBITDA… [+$60M] third-party bandwidth expense… [+$30M] operating cost to ready our ViaSat-3 ground network.” .
Q&A Highlights
- Ligado upside and use of proceeds: management reiterated >$500M is publicly recorded; proceeds would go to deleveraging; timing uncertain due to ongoing proceedings .
- Leverage target: long-run leverage around ~3x cited as attractive for cost of capital and equity value; near-term deleveraging is priority through FCF generation .
- Aviation dynamics: OEM delivery delays and traffic pressures causing near-term headwinds; however, backlog supports growth and multi-orbit Amara roadmap continues .
- Free cash flow trajectory: H2 FY26 inflection targeted; focus on capex discipline, working capital, and reduced capital intensity with ViaSat-3 milestones .
- Maritime inflection confidence: growing installs and backlog on NexusWave; expectation of sequential revenue growth starting Q1 FY26 and YoY growth later in FY26 .
Estimates Context
- Revenue beat: Actual $1,147.1M vs consensus $1,131.1M; magnitude modest but positive, supported by DAT strength and government satcom .
- EPS miss: Non-GAAP diluted EPS -$0.02 vs consensus $0.0425; impairment and ground network actions weighed on earnings .
- EBITDA below: Actual Adjusted EBITDA $374.8M vs EBITDA consensus $386.9M, reflecting FX and write-offs; management noted margin would be ~200 bps higher ex items .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Revenue resilient with DAT momentum; however, FY26 EBITDA reset to flattish indicates near-term earnings headwinds from added bandwidth and ground readiness costs .
- Aviation remains a core growth driver despite OEM and macro pressures; backlog and multi-orbit Amara solution should support medium-term growth .
- Maritime NexusWave traction is accelerating (orders/backlog), pointing to an FY26 revenue inflection; watch Q1 sequential trend as validation .
- Capital structure improving: early redemption of 2025 notes and planned ~$300M term loan repayment; potential Ligado proceeds would accelerate deleveraging .
- ViaSat-3 execution is the critical catalyst: F2 shipment this summer with service likely early CY26; F3 follows on a different antenna design; capacity ramp underpins multi-year growth .
- Estimate revisions likely: consensus should reflect lower FY26 EBITDA trajectory and aviation macro headwinds, while maintaining modest top-line growth outlook .
- Trading lens: near-term sentiment may hinge on EBITDA reset and aviation macros; medium-term rerating depends on successful ViaSat-3 service entry, NexusWave scaling, and visible FCF inflection in H2 FY26 .
Appendix: Balance Sheet and Liquidity (Q4 FY25)
- Cash & equivalents $1.61B; available liquidity $2.8B including undrawn RCFs; net debt $5.59B; early redemption of remaining $442.6M 2025 notes post-quarter .
- Total debt $7.20B; total assets $15.45B; Viasat stockholders’ equity $4.55B .